SAGE:
The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge
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4. CO-CIN analysis shows reductions in morbidity and mortality in hospital patients, due to the lower average age of patients and the impact of vaccination.
9. There are four major risks associated with high numbers of infections. These are an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, more ‘Long-COVID’; workforce absences (including in the NHS); and the increased risk of new variants emerging. The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.
16. Maintaining interventions such as more people working from home, the use of masks in crowded indoor spaces, and increasing ventilation, would contribute to transmission reduction and therefore reduce the number of hospitalisations (high confidence). SAGE has previously advised on the effectiveness of different interventions (SAGE 87).
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021
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